Public Polls

October 26, 2015: Toronto Metro
Fords drove voters away from Conservatives more than Duffy: Poll

The Ford brothers’ cameo in Stephen Harper’s election campaign drove potential voters away from the Conservative Party more than the Duffy trial did, exit polling has found. “It was clearly a mistake to be seen with the Fords,” pollster Greg Lyle told Metro on Tuesday. “It didn’t really rally the base, it pushed away swing voters. Not a good move.” His firm, Innovative Research, conducted polling over the four days following the election, asking voters if certain factors in each party’s campaign made them more or less likely to lend their support.


October 18, 2015: The Globe and Mail
Harper’s image ‘set in stone’ despite Tories’ best efforts to soften it

After ten years of Conservative government, Innovative Research managing director Greg Lyle said, “Mr. Harper’s image appears to be set in stone – nothing the Conservatives try moves it.” Meanwhile, “Mr. Trudeau’s image is still in flux,” as voters continue to take stock of the relatively young and inexperienced leader offering change. When it came to swaying voters who had not yet fully made up their minds, then, Mr. Harper’s claim that this is not about him – however ineffective in his advertising – may have had a ring of truth in the campaign’s last days.


October 17, 2015: Innovative Research Group
Yes Virginia, there is a strategic voter

There has been much discussion in this campaign about whether or not there is such a thing as strategic voting. It is really not a debatable point. Strategic voting is a well-documented feature of election campaigns. One of the international experts in this phenomena is Canada’s own André Blais of the L’Université de Montréal.


October 17, 2015: Innovative Research Group
How Breaking the 2011 Vote Pattern Bends 2015 Seat Models

An increasing trend in Canadian election news coverage is to focus less on individual polls and more on seat projection models that combine survey responses. Because we count seats, not votes, to determine who wins the election, this new feature of media coverage makes sense and will be particularly valuable in future elections. But this election might be different.


October 16, 2015:
Emotions and Values driving Voter Decisions

Voters with centre left values responded strongly to the urgency of the Liberal platform and abandoned the NDP in droves.  Voters are far more afraid of another Conservative government (53% say afraid describes how they feel very or somewhat well) than either the Liberals (40%) or NDP (40%). The opposition parties trump the Conservatives on hope.


October 12, 2015: The Guardian
Canada's Liberal party within reach of election win going into final stretch

Greg Lyle, a pollster at Innovative Research, said the traditionally centrist party successfully tapped into many of the voters that had abandoned them over the last three elections. The party is now running neck-and-neck with the incumbent Conservative Party, if not slightly ahead according to some polls.


October 12, 2015: The Globe and Mail
Rival ads pose threat to Liberal momentum, survey shows

An ongoing series of surveys by Innovative Research Group, gauging voters’ reactions to parties’ advertising during the campaign, has found many of the Liberals’ ads more effective than those of their opponents. It is an unlikely coincidence that the positive responses to the Liberal ads – most notably one in which Mr. Trudeau directly rebutts the “not ready” charge against him, and another showing him going up a down escalator to make a point about Canadians’ difficulty getting ahead under the Conservatives – preceded major gains for the Liberals in horse race polls.


October 9, 2015: The Hill Times
Conservative, NDP hopes dim as Liberals dare to dream

A daring strategy, a strong performance by their leader and some of the best political advertising in recent history have placed the Liberal Party at victory’s doorstep with just 10 days to go. While it is true that a week is a long time in politics, in the normal course of events, today’s numbers would see Justin Trudeau return to his boyhood home. In an online Innovative Research Group poll of 3,417 Canadians conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 8, 35 per cent of decided voters preferred the Liberals, 30 per cent chose the Conservatives and 24 per cent said they would vote for the NDP. This is a complete reversal of our election eve poll where 34 per cent were voting NDP, 29 per cent Conservative and just 26 per cent voting Liberal.


October 8, 2015: The Hill Times
Quebec remains competitive race for Bloc, NDP, Liberals: Innovative Research pollster Lyle

There is still opportunity for voter intention changes in Quebec, even though the front running NDP are losing ground, says Innovative Research Group pollster Greg Lyle.
A new poll by Innovative Research shows that NDP Leader Tom Mulcair did not do well in the last leaders’ debate on Oct. 2, hosted by TVA, but regained support after appearing on Tout Le Monde En Parle.


October 3, 2015: The Globe and Mail
Do election ads really work? Wave 5 of our 2015 campaign ad testing

INNOVATIVE will be testing political ads throughout the 2015 election campaign. In our fifth release we have tested the TV ads that were released in the past few weeks. This wave we also tested some of the most recent French ads released in the campaign among a sample of French speaking Quebecers


Political ads serve two key purposes; they can motivate the sponsor party’s supporters to vote and they can persuade target voters to vote for the sponsor party. Ads accomplish these goals through two mechanisms; they can “prime” or raise awareness of something people already know or feel that gives the sponsor party an advantage over its competitors or the ads can “persuade” by providing new information or framing existing information in a new light to change how people feel about the sponsor party and/or its opponents.


Click here to read more about our ad testing and to see the ads that we tested in this wave.