Public Polls

August 18, 2016: Innovative Research Group Inc.
BC Poll Commentary

On May 9th, 2017, BC’s political parties have a date with destiny. As that date approaches over the next 9 months, INNOVATIVE will conduct a series of polls to understand where the parties stand and what matters to key voters.


May 3, 2016: Policy Magazine
Will Canadians Pay for their Good Intentions

At both the federal and provincial levels in Canada, environmental policy is going through a major shift. The Trudeau government has already begun a radical 180 degree turn from the Harper government’s approach to environmental policy, beginning with climate change. In Alberta, the Notley government introduced a carbon tax in its April 14 budget. Pollster Greg Lyle has some new numbers, exclusive to Policy, which flesh out how Canadians are feeling about environmental issues.


April 8, 2016: The Hill Times
Budget Adds to Immediate NDP Woes but Potential for Rebound Remains

The first Liberal federal budget has twisted the Trudeau knife further in the wounded New Democratic Party. The first budget of the new government is a big hit with elite centre left voters, a moderate success with populist or struggling groups, and leaves conservative groups infuriated. As a result, the Liberals are up, the NDP has declined even further from their election night result, while the Conservatives are treading water. Despite more short term pain for the NDP, the party still retains a slightly larger pool of available voters than the Conservatives. The challenge is to find issues that have both a populist and a left-wing appeal.


February 16, 2016: Innovative Research Group
Social Permission in a Time of Outrage

You need support to build things people don’t like and pay more for something we take for granted •As publicly regulated utilities, energy companies require social permission to operate. •Most major energy company projects fall into the category of LULU’s –Locally Unwanted Land Uses. – No one buys a house and hopes that someone will build a pipeline in the backyard, a substation across the fence or a generating station down the road. – In these circumstances, directly affected people are quick to actively oppose a project and the broader public can easily and quickly identify with those who will be impacted. – This can result in an environment which creates expensive delays in constructions, a loss of reputational capital and invites intervention by government. •Policy challenge is no difference. – No one WANTS to pay more for electricity, but they can be convinced it is necessary.


October 26, 2015: Toronto Metro
Fords drove voters away from Conservatives more than Duffy: Poll

The Ford brothers’ cameo in Stephen Harper’s election campaign drove potential voters away from the Conservative Party more than the Duffy trial did, exit polling has found. “It was clearly a mistake to be seen with the Fords,” pollster Greg Lyle told Metro on Tuesday. “It didn’t really rally the base, it pushed away swing voters. Not a good move.” His firm, Innovative Research, conducted polling over the four days following the election, asking voters if certain factors in each party’s campaign made them more or less likely to lend their support.


October 18, 2015: The Globe and Mail
Harper’s image ‘set in stone’ despite Tories’ best efforts to soften it

After ten years of Conservative government, Innovative Research managing director Greg Lyle said, “Mr. Harper’s image appears to be set in stone – nothing the Conservatives try moves it.” Meanwhile, “Mr. Trudeau’s image is still in flux,” as voters continue to take stock of the relatively young and inexperienced leader offering change. When it came to swaying voters who had not yet fully made up their minds, then, Mr. Harper’s claim that this is not about him – however ineffective in his advertising – may have had a ring of truth in the campaign’s last days.


October 17, 2015: Innovative Research Group
Yes Virginia, there is a strategic voter

There has been much discussion in this campaign about whether or not there is such a thing as strategic voting. It is really not a debatable point. Strategic voting is a well-documented feature of election campaigns. One of the international experts in this phenomena is Canada’s own André Blais of the L’Université de Montréal.


October 17, 2015: Innovative Research Group
How Breaking the 2011 Vote Pattern Bends 2015 Seat Models

An increasing trend in Canadian election news coverage is to focus less on individual polls and more on seat projection models that combine survey responses. Because we count seats, not votes, to determine who wins the election, this new feature of media coverage makes sense and will be particularly valuable in future elections. But this election might be different.


October 16, 2015:
Emotions and Values driving Voter Decisions

Voters with centre left values responded strongly to the urgency of the Liberal platform and abandoned the NDP in droves.  Voters are far more afraid of another Conservative government (53% say afraid describes how they feel very or somewhat well) than either the Liberals (40%) or NDP (40%). The opposition parties trump the Conservatives on hope.


October 12, 2015: The Globe and Mail
Rival ads pose threat to Liberal momentum, survey shows

An ongoing series of surveys by Innovative Research Group, gauging voters’ reactions to parties’ advertising during the campaign, has found many of the Liberals’ ads more effective than those of their opponents. It is an unlikely coincidence that the positive responses to the Liberal ads – most notably one in which Mr. Trudeau directly rebutts the “not ready” charge against him, and another showing him going up a down escalator to make a point about Canadians’ difficulty getting ahead under the Conservatives – preceded major gains for the Liberals in horse race polls.