Public Polls

April 15, 2014: Innovative Research Group
Impact of Police Investigation

The Ontario Political Scene: April 2014


In his presentation at the 2014 Ontario Power Conference ( this morning, Jason Lockhart, Vice President at Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) released the results of an online survey of 800 Ontario adults, aged 18 and older. The poll looked at the impact of the police investigation into the possible deletion of government records from computers in the Premier’s office during the transition of party leadership from Dalton McGuinty to Kathleen Wynne.


March 28, 2014: Innovative Research Group
Roads to Victory: The Ontario Political Landscape

Greg Lyle, President of Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE), released the results of two surveys this morning at a Public Affairs Association of Canada (PAAC) gathering held in downtown Toronto.  The two surveys addressed the key question for campaign strategy: “Who will vote for you and why?” In his presentation, Lyle covered current provincial vote intent, the issues, the parties and their leaders.  He then laid out a Road to Victory for each of the three major political parties.


December 31, 2013: The Globe and Mail
Canadians’ support for infrastructure is high – unless it’s where they live, study says

Most Canadians generally support most types of major infrastructure projects, but support for local projects remains significantly lower, according to a new poll on NIMBYism. The aim of the national tracking survey, conducted by Innovative Research Group, is to take Canadians’ temperatures on major infrastructure – and particularly energy infrastructure – projects, comparing and contrasting their support for projects both locally and elsewhere in their provinces.


September 25, 2013: The Globe and Mail
After the deluge: How Alberta's floods will be a litmus test for Redford at the polls

The impact of the flooding that severely damaged towns and cities throughout Alberta in June will linger for years. So will the impressions people in the province form of the way in which Premier Alison Redford's government responded to the crisis.
While three years away, the next provincial election could well be a referendum on the Premier's handling of the disaster. Which is why she is no doubt paying close attention to what government-commissioned polling is indicating – most of which is good news, some of which is not.
The government had Innovative Research Group gauge the public's mood to the flood response in two rounds of polling – first in July and then again in August. The Globe and Mail obtained results of both surveys.


September 21, 2013:
The Search for Seats: Ontario's Political Scene

Following an active political summer, there is a lot of new information for Ontario political observers to consider.  Not only do we have new polling results where voters tell us what they would do in theory, we have five by-election results where we can see what voters actually did in practice.

Parties count seats, not votes.  This may seem counter-intuitive coming from a pollster, but the reality is what counts on election night is not whether you have more votes than the other parties across the province, but whether you can get a plurality of votes in a majority of seats.  This is what pundits mean when they talk about distribution.  While it doesn’t happen often, it is possible to win an election with fewer voters than your main competitor.

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June 13, 2013: The Province
Voters feared NDP, left-wing gov't in charge of the economy: Pollster

Pollster Greg Lyle says his postelection surveys show voters did indeed want change — but didn't want it badly enough to take a chance on Adrian Dix and the NDP. In a new survey, Lyle's Innovative Research Group concluded "time-for-a-change" voters actually formed the foundation of the Liberals' upset victory. "The Liberals won just over half of this group (52 per cent) and they provided 25 per cent of the Liberal votes on election day," the pollster concluded. Why did voters who wanted change stick with the governing party? Because they "were more afraid of the NDP than the Liberals," the survey said.


June 10, 2013: The Globe and Mail
Are Canadians moved by big oil's ad campaigns?

The question is, are Canadians moved by the pictures and words paid for by big Canadian oil? Greg Lyle, managing director of Innovative Research Group Inc. – a Toronto-based public affairs and corporate communications firm that counts a number of energy companies among its clients – believes there's some potential to move "the mushy middle" of Canadian public opinion.


June 7, 2013: The Globe and Mail
Christy Clark's transition plan begins in earnest

Pollster Greg Lyle, a former B.C. Liberal campaign manager, said his post-election research shows a need for Ms. Clark to demonstrate change to hold on to the support of the so-called 10-second Liberals – a key segment of voters to whom she owes her victory. Those are the voters who were not in the Liberal camp at the beginning of the election campaign, but were won over by the Premier's strong economic message. Mr. Lyle's firm, Innovative Research, conducted a survey between May 22 and 31, with a sample of 648 British Columbians, to find out what drove voters to make the decisions they did – and when.


June 6, 2013: Policy Magazine
Canadians Conflicted on Canada as an Energy Superpower

As this edition of Policy demonstrates, energy has become a central issue in Canada’s national political debate. The Harper government sees energy exports as critical to Canada’s economic wellbeing, and is determined to improve access to the global market. The leader of the Official Opposition, Thomas Mulcair, has focused more on Canadian energy security, minimizing our environmental footprint and increasing domestic value-added. Somewhere in the middle there is Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party. While it is still the early days in Trudeau’s leadership, he has come out opposing Enbridge’s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, he expressed interest in possibilities of shipping bitumen to refineries in Eastern Canada and, more recently, he has indicated support of the Keystone XL pipeline.


May 27, 2013: Spacing
Skeptcism on revenue tools

As for the revenue tools themselves, the poll — conducted earlier this month by Innovative Research Group* — revealed that residents were most likely to favour four sorts of taxes — development charges, parking space levies, HOT lanes, and highway tolls — over all the other mechanisms floated by the regional agency earlier this spring. Those four, some of which have turned up as top choices in other recent polls, are the only ones on Metrolinx’s short-list to merit “net positive support,” meaning the total number of respondents in favour exceeds those opposed.