Innovative in the News
May 22, 2013: Times Colonist
Why the NDP lost and the polls were wrong
In Alberta last year, all the public polls had Danielle Smith and the Wild Rose cruising to a majority. On election night, one columnist even filed a piece on how she won. Meanwhile, in the last 10 days of the campaign, Redford was growing by as much as two points a day. Who knew? Her pollster, Greg Lyle, who saw her majority coming. Even when she was clearly surging in Calgary and Edmonton in the closing days of the campaign, no one else saw it, least of all the journalists who were supposedly covering the campaign.
May 19, 2013: North Shore News
Pundits post-mortem election
Greg Lyle, a political strategist, Liberal supporter and pollster for Innovative Research, said several factors likely contributed to the polls being wrong. A lot of polls are done online, which tends to favour certain types of responses, he said. Not all polls take into account that certain demographic groups are much more likely to vote than others, he said.
May 17, 2013: The Tyee
Behind BC's Pollster Fail
Greg Lyle has seen a lot of election campaigns -- and campaign polls -- as a pollster and a political organizer. He says there's a key difference between parties' internal polls and the polls you read about in the media. "Parties spend a lot of money on polling," Lyle said in an election night interview.
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